Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)

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Quantitative analysis of university absenteeism: The case of the Faculty of Economics and Business
(Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, 2026-02-24) Pons Fanals, Ernest; Guitart Tarrés, Laura; Bretones, María Trinidad; López Jurado, Pilar; Pigem i Vigo, Mònica; Rubert Adelantado, Glòria; Crespi Vallbona, Montserrat
Abstract: There is growing concern about low attendance among university students. In response, the Dean's Office of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Barcelona (UB) designed a data collection procedure to verify whether this perception is correct. Data were gathered from 67% (292 out of 437) of the groups taught during the semester in which the survey was conducted. The main results indicate a wide range of attendance patterns between subjects and groups, with some groups reporting less than10% attendance and others more than 90%. The information collected from the survey was used to identify the institutional factors that most cause higher attendance in some groups than in others. Specifically, these statistical and relevant factors are theweek in which the class was held, the year, the teacher's gender and type of contract, and the type of degree. This addresses new questions for the university community.
Concentration of income and human development: the role of the middle class
(Oxford University Press, 2025-07-01) Castells Quintana, David; Gradín, Carlos; Royuela Mora, Vicente
In this paper, we reassess the relationship between inequality and human development, focusing on the differential role of concentration of income at different parts of the distribution. To do so, we rely on a large global panel of countries over the last decades including information on economic and human development, as well as detailed information on the distribution of income within countries. We show how the concentration of income at the bottom and top, rather than overall inequality, is negatively associated with human development. This result highlights the relevance of income shares that go to the middle part of the income distribution and seems especially important in what refers to human capital accumulation in middle- and low-income countries, and health in high-income countries. Our main results remain significant under different specifications and estimation techniques and after controlling for several country-specific characteristics, including the quality of institutions.
Assesing the effectiveness of recient pension reforms: The French experiment
(2025-12-01) Bravo, Jorge Miguel; Ayuso, Mercedes; El Mekkaoui, Najat
Reforming public and private pension systems to address the challenges posed by population ageing and a range of economic, labour market, social, political, geopolitical, technological, legal, and regulatory shocks remains a major policy priority for many countries. A widely supported response has been to raise minimum and statutory retirement ages and restrict early exit pathways. These measures aim to boost labour force participation and employment among older individuals, stimulate potential GDP growth and consumption, ease pressure on social security systems, and improve public finances. However, it remains uncertain whether pension reforms alone can prevent a decline in the relative size of the labour force or ensure intergenerational fairness. This paper assesses the effectiveness of recent retirement age reforms in France in stabilising the old-age dependency ratio and securing long-term financial sustainability. It also examines whether these reforms promote intergenerational equity. The findings suggest that the reforms fall short of offsetting the projected decline in the labour force, achieving fairness across generations, and maintaining fiscal balance. The results underscore the need for a holistic and dynamic approach to retirement age policy design.
A new approach to getting simulation models used in healthcare: An example from emergency care
(Taylor & Francis, 2025-12-01) England, Tracey; Conroy, Simon; Brailsford, Sally; Burton, Christopher; Martin, Graham; Mason, Suzanne M.; Maynou Pujolràs, Laia; Phelps, Kay; Preston, Louise; Regen, Emma; Street, Andrew; van Oppen, James D.
While simulation is routinely used by practitioners in many sectors, it is still not part of the hospital manager’s standard toolkit. One of the barriers to adoption often described is lack of trust: people trust models that they were involved in developing, but not necessarily those developed for other hospitals, no matter how similar. However, generic models designed to be applicable anywhere also face challenges, as potential users may distrust this one-size-fits-all approach. This paper presents a new approach to tackling this problem. Initially a “semi-generic” model is developed, namely a model that is applicable to a small group of hospitals that have some particular feature in common, e.g., geographical location/size. The semi-generic version is then tested extensively with stakeholders, first from within the initial group of hospitals and later from outside it. Finally, based on feedback from all the stakeholders, the model is adapted to make it fully generic, i.e., applicable to any hospital. The approach is illustrated by a system dynamics model which allows users to test the system-wide impact of five evidence-based interventions for older people in hospital Emergency Departments. Initially developed for one specific region, the fully generic version can be used anywhere in England.
Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
(Elsevier, 2025-12-01) Gomez Ruiz, Marcela; Li Donni, Paolo; Marino, Maria
This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.
The monetary injury risk value of a crashed vehicle: a gender driving analysis
(Elsevier, 2025-10-01) Céspedes, Luis; Santolino, Miguel; Ayuso, Mercedes
The bodily injury severity of a vehicle involved in a crash has traditionally been defined in literature as the one associated with the most serious injured occupant and, therefore, excluding from the analysis the injured victims other than the most serious one. In this study, we propose an aggregate injury severity indicator for a crashed vehicle, based on the alternative metrics used in road safety research to calculate the monetary value of the change in risk of death and injury for each person in the vehicle. The main advantage of our indicator is that, by projecting the different qualitative levels of injury severity into monetary values, it allows aggregating the injury severity levels sustained by all occupants of a vehicle into a single value. We analyse the effect of the gender of the driver and its interaction with other risk factors on the expected monetary value of the injury risk of the vehicle. We found evidence of gender differences in driving, consistent with ‘couple driving behaviour’, where a man is more likely to be the driver when a woman (presumably the couple) is also in the vehicle. When the driver was a woman, the expected monetary value of the injury risk was on average reduced by 22 % for the occupants of the vehicle, and by 34 % for the passengers, i.e. excluding the driver’s injuries. The reduction of the monetary value of the injury risk of passengers was higher for young female drivers than for old ones, with young-older female drivers (aged 66–74 years) being riskier for occupants than the young-older male drivers. In conclusion, analysing the gender differences in the aggregate expected injury severity for all occupants of the vehicle provides road safety policy makers with a better approximation of the injury severity resulting from motor vehicle crashes.
The multiomics blueprint of the individual with the most extreme lifespan
(Cell Press, 2025-10-21) Torrubiano, Marta; Massip Salcedo, Marta; Khidir, Kamal A.; Cao, Thong Huy; Quinn, Paulene A.; Jones, Donald J. L.; Macip, Salvador; Brigos Barril, Eva; Moldes, Mauricio; Barteri, Fabio; Ferrer, Gerardo; Muntané, Gerard; Davalos, Veronica; Laayouni, Hafid; Mereu, Elisabetta; Navarro, Arcadi; Pluvinet, Raquel; Esteller, Manel; Arribas, Carles; Torre, Carolina de la; Villavicencio Goula, Francisco; Sumoy, Lauro; Granada, Isabel; Coles, Natalie S.; Santos Pujol, Eloy; Noguera Castells, Aleix; Casado Pelaez, Marta; García Prieto, Carlos A.; Vasallo, Claudia; Campillo Marcos, Ignacio; Quero Dotor, Carlos; Crespo García, Eva; Bueno Costa, Alberto; Setién, Fernando; Acha, Pamela; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Mata, Caterina; Peregrina, Sara; Gabaldón, Toni; Llirós, Marc; Pujolassos, Meritxell; Carrera Torres, Robert; Lluansí, Aleix; García Gil, Librado Jesús; Aldeguer, Xavier; Samino, Sara; Torné, Pol; Ribalta, Josep; Guardiola, Montse; Amigó, Núria; Yanes, Oscar; Martínez, Paula; Sánchez Vázquez, Raúl; Blasco, Maria A.; Oviedo, Jose; Lemos, Bernardo; Rius Bonet, Julia
Extreme human lifespan, exemplified by supercentenarians, presents a paradox in understanding aging: despite advanced age, they maintain relatively good health. To investigate this duality, we have performed a high-throughput multiomics study of the world's oldest living person, interrogating her genome, transcriptome, metabolome, proteome, microbiome, and epigenome, comparing the results with larger matched cohorts. The emerging picture highlights different pathways attributed to each process: the record-breaking advanced age is manifested by telomere attrition, abnormal B cell population, and clonal hematopoiesis, whereas absence of typical age-associated diseases is associated with rare European-population genetic variants, low inflammation levels, a rejuvenated bacteriome, and a younger epigenome. These findings provide a fresh look at human aging biology, suggesting biomarkers for healthy aging, and potential strategies to increase life expectancy. The extrapolation of our results to the general population will require larger cohorts and longitudinal prospective studies to design potential anti-aging interventions.
Road to division: Ethnic favoritism and road infrastructure in Ethiopia
(Elsevier) Perra, Elena
This paper investigates the role of ethnic favoritism in the long run allocation of road infrastructure in Ethiopia. I construct a 5 km grid cell panel by merging road network data from the late 1960s to 2016 with high resolution maps of local ethnic composition. Using a quasi-experimental empirical design, the study finds that cells where the local majority shares the ethnicity with the ruling elite receive 8.7 percent additional road investments and see a 13.8 improvement in road surface quality than otherwise comparable non co-ethnic cells. Exploiting the phased rollout of the Road Sector Development Program between 1997 and 2016, I also document that new roads raise night lights intensity by 0.27 standard deviations in cells benefiting from the program and by 0.51 standard deviations in co-ethnic areas, with larger effects for earlier investments. These findings suggest that ethnic alignment and the availability of large public funds jointly shape the placement of road infrastructure, influencing local economic dynamics.
Testing for constant unconditional variance in heavy-tailed time series
(Taylor & Francis) Carrión i Silvestre, Josep Lluís; Sansó, Andreu
The paper demonstrates that the limiting distribution of the CUMSUMQ statistic can be expressed as a function of Brownian or stable-Lévy excursions stochastic processes, depending on the tail index of the time series, which can be well approximated by Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions. Response surfaces to compute critical values and p-values for the CUMSUMQ statistic in finite samples are estimated considering the tail index. The paper introduces a modified version of the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm that incorporates the tail index into the detection of multiple structural breaks in the unconditional variance. The proposed methodology is illustrated through an empirical application to 80 log-exchange rate returns against the US dollar.
The performance of performance-based contracting in public outsourcing: A meta-regression analysis
(Public Management Research Association) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Espaillat, Pedro; Esteve, Marc
Performance-Based Contracting (PBC) is promoted as a model that improves results, enhances quality, reduces costs, and increases accountability. It has become a standard element of government contracting worldwide and a key component of newer pay-for-success models. However, scholarly evaluations remain scattered and often lack a solid theoretical foundation. This study conducts a meta-analysis of 740 observations from 38 studies across 10 service areas to evaluate genuine performance. Utilizing principal–agent, incomplete-contract, and goal-setting theories, we examine what influences the performance of PBC. By combining these perspectives within a single empirical framework, the paper offers a systematic tests of core assumptions about incentive alignment, contract incompleteness, and goal design in public contracting. Results indicate that outcome-focused contracts are more successful than those targeting process- or output-based results. This finding provides quantitative evidence supporting incomplete-contract theory’s claim that performance depends on the contractibility of outcomes and extends principal–agent logic by demonstrating when and why incentives fail in multidimensional public settings. Although context matters, factors such as residual control, collaboration, and shared goals are central to PBC success. The study thus makes a theoretical contribution by bridging economic and behavioral contracting theories and empirically grounding their predictions in public-sector evidence.
Privatisation and Remunicipalisation of urban water in Catalonia: between monopolisation, state and the commons
(Oxford University Press) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël
We study how the privatisation of urban water is being challenged in Catalonia, which has a high proportion of private management and a high degree of monopolisation in the water contract market, compared to Spain. We use detailed and up-to-date municipal data to study the dynamics of monopolisation and remunicipalisation. We find that remunicipalisation, rather than potential competition for contracts, is a remedy against monopolisation. Inter-municipal cooperation in Catalonia facilitated the implementation of remunicipalisation in smaller municipalities. In addition, we analyse the democratisation of water management following remunicipalisation and find that progress was modest, both in Catalonia and in Spain.
Administrative Burden in public contracting: are bidders looking away?
(Taylor & Francis) Espaillat, Pedro; Batista Foguet, Joan Manuel; Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Esteve, Marc
Countries devote significant public resources to procurement, yet the processes remain complex and hindered by participation barriers. This experimental study innovatively draws on the administrative burden literature, presenting a real solicitation (higher burden) and a behaviourally intervened version (lower burden). Findings reveal that higher experiencing of burden reduces willingness to collaborate with government, even when eligibility is met. Although subject to boundary conditions, the effects are modestly attributable to state actions and underscore their role in shaping business-state interactions, while also offering preliminary steps to tackle contracting processes accessibility. Procurement research can benefit from underused behavioural and individual level approaches.
Captive or Non-Captive: Knowledge Sourcing Strategies and Innovation Performance
(Taylor & Francis) Tojeiro Rivero, Damián; Moreno, Reinaldo
Prior literature has argued that, although both captive knowledge sourcing (CKS) and non-captive knowledge sourcing (NCKS) are effective strategies for enhancing firm innovativeness, the former plays a more defined role in determining the likelihood of a firm achieving product innovations. However, we contend that the focus should not only be on the decision to innovate but, more importantly, on the profitability firms derive from such innovations. Given that knowledge acquired from external sources can provide firms with ideas that differ from their existing competencies, NCKS may be more advantageous, as the resulting innovations are likely to exhibit higher levels of novelty. Additionally, we examine the complementarity or substitutability between CKS and NCKS in driving innovation. Our findings for Spanish firms suggest that NCKS yields greater benefits than CKS. Moreover, adopting both strategies simultaneously does not result in higher benefits; instead, a minimum threshold of NCKS, above the median, is necessary to realize observable gains. This indicates that firms must demonstrate a substantial level of commitment to NCKS to effectively exploit its potential for generating returns from their most novel innovations.
Community-based outcomes of interlocal cooperation in social services
(Taylor & Francis) Bel i Queralt, Germà, 1963-; Bühler, Joël; Pano, Esther
We investigate the effects of interlocal cooperation in social services, focusing on two poverty-related outcomes: guaranteed minimum income and housing rental support. Using a rich database on municipalities in Catalonia, we firstly apply a quasi-experimental strategy and then perform robustness analyses using panel models. Our most robust results indicate that cooperation has a positive and significant effect on rental assistance, but no significant effects on guaranteed minimum income. This suggests that cooperation may be effective in improving community-based outcomes where these are determined by services that involve more complex tasks and procedures.
The effects of regional environmental EU-funded research on firm innovation: A multilevel analysis
(Springer Verlag) D'Agostino, Lorena M.; Moreno, Reinaldo; Tojeiro Rivero, Damián
Taking the long-established evidence on knowledge spillovers that states that part of the new created knowledge spills over to other firms mostly located in the physical proximity, we aim at providing evidence on the role of green knowledge spillovers on firms’ innovation. We posit that in addition to internal factors, firm innovation is determined by external regional factors, among which we specifically focus on the spillovers generated by environmental EU-funded research at the regional level. The results indicate that the presence of partners engaged in EU-environmental projects in a region has a positive and significant effect on process innovation.
Trains of thought: High-Speed Rail and innovation in China
(Taylor & Francis) Tsiachtsiras, Georgios; Yin, Deyun; Miguélez, Ernest; Moreno, Reinaldo
This paper explores the effect of the High-Speed Rail (HSR) network expansion on local technological change of Chinese cities, during the period 2008-2016. Using exogenous variation arising from the courier’s stations during the Ming dynasty as instrument, we first find evidence that the opening of a HSR station increases cities’ innovation activity. The paper also looks at the effect of the HSR on the technological trajectories of cities. Computing least-cost paths between city-pairs, we obtain that the probability of a city to branch into a new technological field is related to the current portfolio of the cities to which it connects to through the HSR network, even after accounting for the local stock of capabilities.
Women’s voice at work and family-friendly firms
(Springer Nature, 2025-12-01) Garcia Louzao, Jose; Perez, Ruben
This paper exploits a unique and novel census of administrative records covering all firm-level collective agreements signed in Spain between 2010 and 2018 to examine whether the gender composition of worker representation aligns with the type of workplace policies negotiated with management. We compare firms that are subject to the same labour regulations but differ in terms of the presence of female representatives on employee bargaining committees. Firms with female worker representatives are more likely to include family-friendly policies in the agreement; by contrast, we find only mild positive effects for practices promoting gender equality and no differences for broader employment conditions such as wages or hours. These associations remain robust across alternative empirical specifications and matching exercises. Together, the findings suggest that the presence of women at the bargaining table can shape the content of workplace policies, particularly in ways that address work–family balance.
Caracterització de l'accés a la universitat dels estudiants menorquins
(Ateneu de Maó, 2020-01-01) Pons Fanals, Ernest
L’article presenta les principals conclusions d’un treball de recerca que parteix de la preocupació per l’impacte que pot tenir sobre la societat menorquina un accés deficient dels seus estudiants als estudis superiors, en general, i als estudis universitaris, en particular. Davant de la manca d’informació precisa i sistemàtica, s’ha fet un creuament de les diverses fonts d’informació que aporten visions complementàries. I, sobretot, s’ha fet servir la informació referida als estudiants que han accedit els darrers anys a les universitats públiques catalanes per conèixer millor les característiques socioeconòmiques d’aquests estudiants i del seu entorn familiar. L’anàlisi d’aquestes característiques permet cloure l’article amb un seguit de propostes i consideracions que tenen com a objectiu ajudar a millorar la dedicació dels estudiants i, per tant, les possibilitats d’accés a la universitat. I, per tant, l’eficiència del sistema.
On a Bivariate Distribution with Composite Exponential-Pareto Marginals and Dependence in Low-Cost Claims
(Taylor & Francis, 2025-10) Bolancé Losilla, Catalina; Vernic, Raluca; Bâca, Adrian
Spliced distributions with Pareto tail, better known as compound distributions in the actuarial field, have been intensively studied in the univariate case; however, extending spliced distributions to the bivariate setting is an open problem, so that applications in the bivariate case are rather scarce. In this article, we present an application with auto insurance claim costs that illustrates the importance of using these bivariate distributions in quantifying the risk of loss. We define a bivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM) distribution with Exponential–Pareto marginals, which are considered with and without the continuity condition at the threshold where the exponential changes to Pareto. After presenting some properties of this bivariate distribution, we discuss a proposed estimation procedure, which is not obvious since the marginal thresholds are unknown parameters and they have to be estimated separately. The properties of the estimation procedure are analyzed through a simulation study. We obtain that the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) decrease when the sample size increases for a set of positive dependence structures. We also use a real data sample of bivariate claims costs collected from an auto insurance portfolio in Spain. The results show how, when the dependence is taken into account, the shape of the total loss distribution changes affecting the risk of loss.
Back to normal? a method to test and correct a shock impact on healthcare usage frequency data
(Elsevier B.V., 2026-01-01) Moriña, David; Fernández Fontelo, Amanda; Guillén, Montserrat
A method based on Bayesian structural time series is proposed to predict healthcare usage trends and to test for changes in the series levels during or after an abnormal year, such as that of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Our method can also serve to calculate correction factors for frequency count data that can be integrated in a preprocessing step before undertaking a cross-sectional statistical analysis, and, in this way, the impact of a shock can be eliminated. Here, adjustments are derived for a large private health insurer in Spain from estimates of average healthcare usage. Median claims rate levels in 2020 were 15 % down on 2019 figures, but rose in 2021 and 2022, when the rate was 11 % and 8 % higher than in 2019, respectively. Once the shock correction is incorporated in the preprocessing step, our approach is shown to outperform traditional time series techniques. Healthcare insurance usage in Spain did not fully go back to normal levels (assuming that pre-pandemic values represent normality) in 2022, with the exception of some patient groups and specific medical services. Our method can be implemented in other areas of risk analysis when frequency counts are exposed to shocks and it allows estimating the difference in claims volume between real figures and those estimated, had the shock not occurred.

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